The effects of severe weather are felt every year by many South Africans. To obtain critical weather information, the SAWDOS use voluntary weather observers. These volunteers help keep their local communities safe and informed by providing timely and accurate reports of severe weather to the SAWDOS for publication on the Blog. The SAWDOS is a non-profit organization that renders a FREE COMMUNITY-BASED SERVICE.
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Friday 2 March 2012
South Indian Ocean: Tropical Storm Alert (TS IRINA 14S) issued at 2 Mar, 2012 0:00 GMT
Tropical Storm IRINA (14S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mozambique
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Inhambane (23.9 S, 35.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
Xai-Xai (25.0 S, 33.6 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for TS is 90% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Morombe (21.8 S, 43.4 E)
probability for TS is 85% currently
Massinga (23.3 S, 35.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
Maputo (26.0 S, 32.6 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
South Africa
probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours
Swaziland
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Toliara (23.4 S, 43.7 E)
probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours
Cheline (22.5 S, 35.0 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
- Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)
Labels:
Cyclones,
Tropical Storms
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