This afternoon's GFS model run (12Z on Sun 8th) continues to show strong
development of the cutoff-low later this week.
This custom GFS chart shows the possible average rainfall (in mm/day) for the
60 hour period from 00Z on Fri 13th to 12Z on Sun 15th. Cumulative totals of
up to 200mm are possible in places, illustrating the potential for damaging
floods.
N.B. Please do not take this chart literally, either in terms of the location
of the peak rain, nor the likely amount. These figures can and will change a
lot over the next few model runs.
of the peak rain, nor the likely amount. These figures can and will change a
lot over the next few model runs.
Observer: Gordon Richardson
SAWDOS: Gordon thank you very much for providing the above information to the SAWDOS. Highly appreciated!!
The SAWDOS will monitor the development of the possible cut-off low with great interest over the next few days. Cut-off low pressure systems are important weather systems for two reasons:
1. They are capable of stratosphere-troposphere exchange.
2. They are often associated with deep moist convection which can lead to significant amounts of rainfall over short periods of time and therefore flash flooding.
1. They are capable of stratosphere-troposphere exchange.
2. They are often associated with deep moist convection which can lead to significant amounts of rainfall over short periods of time and therefore flash flooding.
It is still to early to say for certain if the system will result in
severe weather, however at this stage it appears that this is a
significant system that should be observed full time as from tomorrow
morning and throughout the rest of the week. The SAWDOS is currently
monitoring this system very closely en encourage all it's weather
observers to do the same.
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