Update: Advisory - Possible Cut-off low predicted for the Southern Cape 13-16 Jul 2012

Weather changes all the time!   The latest models indicate that the heavy rain expected in the Southern Cape this coming weekend has now shifted towards the Eastern Cape Province. According to the latest models heavy rain is now expected along the coastal areas of the Eastern Cape.  Between 75 - 100mm of rain is expected to fall in areas.  This does not mean that heavy falls cannot be expected in the Western and Southern Cape.  If a cut-off low and steep upper air trough develops we can expect severe weather. Heavy rain, possible flooding and heavy snow is expected over parts of Western/Southern and Eastern Cape from Friday, 13/7/2012 to 16/7/2012. 

By now we should know that cut-off low systems is responsible for heavy rain and that these systems are really unpredictable and can change in intensity and direction on an hourly basis. A similar system caused the Laingsburg Flood in 1981.

SAWDOS is of the opinion that current forecasting charts does not provide enough information to make specific predictions for specific areas of South Africa. It is still to early to say for certain if the system will result in severe weather, however at this stage it appears that this system has the potential to develop in a significant system that must be observed full time as from Friday morning and throughout the rest of the weekend. The SAWDOS is currently monitoring this system very closely and encourage all weather observers to do the same this coming weekend .

Animated predictions by NOAA - Click HERE.

Image: NOAA/ National Weather Service (Click on image for larger view.)