The approaching frontal system and deep upper trough can clearly be seen on this morning's SAWS ship synoptic chart (06Z on Wed 19th), and EUMetsat Antarctic sector Airmass animation:
metzone.weathersa.co.za/images/articles/ma_sy.gif
oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/RGB/AIRMASS/ANTARCTIC/
There are large amounts of cirrus shown ahead of the front, which is usually an indicator of heavy rain over Cape Town. The cold upper air behind the front is shown as deep reddish-brown colour.
The NCEP GFS ensemble animation of the 500hPa isolines shows the large disturbance driving the upper trough, as well as the relatively high degree of certainty in the model runs: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_d...nsm_spa_hgt500a.html
The amount of rainfall and freezing levels are still somewhat uncertain, but this weekend is likely to be a prolonged period of unsettled (and cool) weather for the entire southern coast of RSA.
Compiled by Gordon Richardson - Stormchasing SA
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