Cut-Off Low appears to be forming along the Southern Cape Coast (Period: 17 - 21 October 2012)

Conditions seem to be favorable for the formation of a weak to moderate cut-off low along the Southern Cape Coast. It is still a bit early but observations in this area shows good similarity to previous cut-off lows.

Heavy rain (50mm and more) is predicted along the Southern Cape coast and adjacent interior starting tomorrow the 18 October and continue until Sunday 21 October 2012.

Cut-off low pressure systems are important weather systems for two reasons:

1.  They are capable of stratosphere-troposphere exchange.
2.  They are often associated with deep moist convection which can lead to significant amounts of rainfall over short periods of time and therefore flash flooding.

The SAWDOS would like to warn all communities to remain on full alert. Motorists, travelers and members of the public must take note of the high probability of heavy rain and possible flash flooding. The SAWDOS will once again bring you the latest updates as the system progresses. Recent forecasting charts does not provide enough information to make specific predictions for specific areas.  It is still to early to say for certain if the system will result in severe weather, however at this stage the system  should be observed full time as from tomorrow morning and throughout the rest of the week. The SAWDOS is currently monitoring this system very closely en encourage all it's weather observers to do the same.

The SAWDOS hereby ask the general public and SAWDOS Observers to forward any reports of severe weather conditions and flash flooding to the SAWDOS. Use your cellphone, digital camera, email and private weather station etc. in gathering and forwarding information, photos and data to the SAWDOS.



We also remind our readers that the SAWDOS utilize the following social media formats to keep our readers informed :

SA Weather and Disaster Observation Service Blog - http://sawdis1.blogspot.com/

SAWDOS Twitter - http://sawdis1.blogspot.com/p/sawdis-twitter.html or @SAWDOS1

SAWDOS Facebook Group - http://www.facebook.com/groups/374316165928426/

Please note that any of the above could be used during severe weather to keep the public informed or to notify the SAWDOS of a severe weather event.

Johan Terblanche
Founder: SA Weather and Disaster Observation Service
Mossel Bay
17 October 2012