THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.3S 41.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.8S 41.3E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, BUT ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. A 260706Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF TURNING THAT SPANS ACROSS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WITH SOME FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A 260705Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ELONGATED CIRCULATION. THE LLCC IS LOCATED JUST UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS GIVING WAY TO MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
- JTWC + CIMSS + EUMETSAT
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