Tropical Cyclone Activity: South Indian Ocean - Tropical Cyclone 07S (Dumile) (Final Update)

042100Z POSITION NEAR 28.6S 56.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (DUMILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM 
SOUTH OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STEADY 
WEAKENING TREND FOR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW INDICATED 
55 KNOTS. AN APPROACHING DEEP LAYERED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS LOCATED 
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC AND HAS STARTED TO IMPACT THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING TROUGH, WILL 
START TO DECOUPLE THE UPPER LEVEL FROM THE LLCC AND LEAD TO AN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION. POOR SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, INCREASING VWS 
AND FURTHER IMPACT FROM THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE 
SYSTEM TO FINISH THE TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NUMERICAL 
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH 
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
041800Z IS 30 FEET.

- JTWC and Eumetsat