Update: WATCH: Tropical Low Pressure System: Mozambique/Indian Ocean - Possible Cyclone forming in the next 24 Hours.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 24.5S 35.7E 
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.7S 37.5E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST-NORTHEAST 
OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION 
SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM SOUTHEAST OF CENTER. A 212255Z AMSU 
IMAGE INDICATES FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST 
QUADRANT AND DISORGANIZED, SHALLOW BANDING ELSEWHERE. A 211937Z 
ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 35 TO 40 
KNOT WINDS DISPLACED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF A WEAK (15 TO 25 KNOTS) 
CORE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED EAST 
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER-LEVEL 
TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS UNDER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(20 TO 40 KNOTS) AND IS POSITIONED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE 
SUBTROPICAL JET AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW (50 TO 60 KNOTS), 
WHICH IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS 
ASSESSED AS SUBTROPICAL AND HAS POTENTIAL TO TRANSITION INTO A WARM-
CORE SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY 
EASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL RE-
BUILD OVER THE LLCC AND THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY 
INDICATES A DEEP MOISTURE CORE SUFFICIENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM. 

- JTWC + CIMSS