Update: WATCH: Tropical Low Pressure System: Madagascar/Indian Ocean - Possible Cyclone forming in the next 24 Hours

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 23.9S 41.8E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.4S 43.8E, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. A
232233Z AMSU-N MICROWAVE PASS CLEARLY SHOWS THE GROSS ELONGATION OF
THE LLCC AND THE SIGNIFICANT DISPLACEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF AND
OPENING DISTANCE FROM THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG
(20-30 KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY, SHOWS STRONG SOUTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW IS
HELPING SUSTAIN THE WAYWARD CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. IN VIEW OF THE HIGH VWS, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

- JTWC + EUMETSAT + CIMSS