Current Southern Hemisphere Tropical Systems: Tropical Cyclone 15S (Gino)

130300Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 79.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GINO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 790 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A RAGGED EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF A
POINT SOURCE IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, THE SAME ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SUSTAINING
THE EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS ROUNDING
THE WESTERN EDGE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL HIGH (STH) TO THE
EAST. AFTER TAU 24, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING STH AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DEFLECT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME AN
EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY TAU 72. CONCURRENTLY, VWS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH ITS INITIAL EXPOSURE
INTO THE WESTERLIES FURTHER ENHANCING THE EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WBAR AS THE SOLE
RIGHT OUTLIER. GIVEN THE WELL-ESTABLISHED STEERING MECHANISM AND THE
TIGHT PACKING OF THE NUMERIC GUIDANCE, THERE REMAINS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 26 FEET.

- JTWC + Eumetsat