Intense Tropical Cyclone HARUNA

South Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 21 Feb, 2013 12:00 GMT

Intense Tropical Cyclone HARUNA (16S) currently located near 22.3 S 41.9 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Madagascar
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Toliara (23.4 S, 43.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Betioky (23.7 S, 44.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Morombe (21.8 S, 43.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Ambovombe (25.2 S, 46.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
    Betroka (23.2 S, 46.1 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
    Tolanaro (25.0 S, 47.0 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Ihosy (22.3 S, 46.1 E)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours
    Morondava (20.3 S, 44.3 E)
        probability for TS is 35% within 12 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Image: Eumetsat