Significant Tropical Weather for the Indian Ocean: Heavy rain, gale force winds, rough seas and large wave heights expected from Monday 16th to possibly Friday 20th.

Image: Eumetsat (Click on image for larger view.)

Image: NOAA18 - 14h46 SAST (Nic Cronje, Nelspruit) Click on images for larger view.

Image: NOAA15 - 17h11 SAST (Nic Cronje, Nelspruit) Click on image for larger view.

As indicated in the previous update the low pressure system South West of Madagascar intensified overnight. Since the last update the system intensified further. Rotation is now visible on the latest NOAA18 and NOAA15 satellite images. Several recent model runs indicate the potential for formation of a tropical disturbance in the SW-Indian Ocean during the period from Monday 16th to possibly Friday 20th. The system is still tracking westward. Heavy rain, strong wind and very rough seas with high wave heights are expected along the northern parts of the Kwazulu Natal coast. Heavy rain is expected over the extreme south eastern parts of Mpumalanga while heavy rain is expected over the lowveld. Heavy rain is also expected over the southern parts of Mozambique.

The following Tropical Weather Advisory for the Indian Ocean has been issued by the US Naval Oceanographical Portal - JTWC:

ABIO10 PGTW 151400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/151400Z-151800ZJAN2012//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 25.9S 45.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 27.4S 38.7E, APPROXIMATELY 690 NM SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HIGH RESOLUTION VISUAL IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION ON EITHER SIDE OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC HAS SHOWN TIGHTER ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN TO 25 KNOTS. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA REVEALS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS BETWEEN THE LLCC AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY LIGHTER OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE 150000Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE LLCC, AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES NOT INDICATE GOOD OUTFLOW CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE 28 DEGREES. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING STEADILY WESTWARD THROUGH WARM WATERS AND A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR ON BOTH SIDES OF THE SYSTEM. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO CYCLONE STRENGTH IS MIXED, BUT THERE HAS BEEN A TREND TOWARDS INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

The SAWDOS is keeping and eye on the system and will inform our readers of any further developments. Please report any heavy rain possible flooding, gale force winds, rough seas and large wave heights to the SAWDOS in the event that this system develop further in the next 72 hours.

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