Update: Request Weather Observation: Possible heavy rain for Monday and Tuesday (16 - 17 January 2012) along the North Eastern Parts of South Africa

20H00 SAST

20h15 SAST

18H00 ZULU

Images: Eumetsat (Click on image for larger view.)

From the above images it would appear that the low pressure west of Madagascar is intensifying and moving south west very quickly.  From this mornings's image it is quite noticeable that the low pressure has moved rapidly in 12 hours.  It would appear that this system will move further westwards.Heavy rain is expected over northern parts of Kwazulu Natal on Monday. Heavy rain is also expected over the lowveld and escarpment on Monday.  (See SAWS Weather Warnings in the previous post for further details.)

The following Tropical Weather Advisory for the Indian Ocean has been issued by the US Naval Oceanographical Portal - JTWC:

ABIO10 PGTW 141800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/141800Z-151800ZJAN2012//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: 
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 24.5S 48.9E 
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.9S 45.5E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTH OF 
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS PERSISTED OVER THE 
PAST 24 HOURS BUT IS BEGINNING TO ELONGATE EAST TO WEST. DEEP 
CONVECTION REMAINS SPORADIC BUT HAS STARTED TO BUILD ALONG THE 
EASTERN PERIPHERY TOWARDS THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A 
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT CONTINUES TO HAMPER OUTFLOW FOR THE 
LLCC AND HAS KEPT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LOW (5-10 KNOTS). MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE LLCC 
ELONGATING AND A SLIGHTLY UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

The SAWDOS is keeping and eye on the system and will inform our readers of any further developments. Please report any heavy rain possible flooding, gale force winds, rough seas and wave heights to the SAWDOS in the event that this system develop over the next two days.

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