Update: Tropical Cyclone 08S (Funso) South Indian Ocean( Mozambique Channel)

212100Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 38.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. IR IMAGERY CURRENTLY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, OVER MOZAMBIQUE. THEREFORE, DVORAK DATA-T ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 4.0 (PGTW) TO 4.5 (KNES), HOWEVER, THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES REMAIN HIGH AT 5.0 TO 5.5 AND MORE ACCURATELY REFLECT THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY. THIS FORECAST INDICATES AN INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BASED ON THE CI ESTIMATES. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY (MI) SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT MOTION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. IN PARTICULAR, A 210501Z SSMIS IMAGE (SMALL MI EYE FEATURE AT 18.0S 37.7E) AND A 211537Z CORIOLIS IMAGE (SMALL MI EYE FEATURE AT 18.0S 37.9E) CLEARLY SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TRACKING EASTWARD AND HAS RETAINED A STRONG LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE. TC 08S IS, THEREFORE, LIKELY TO RE-INTENSIFY QUICKLY AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK AWAY FROM LAND. TC 08S REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FILL AND
TRANSIT SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A RE-CURVE MECHANISM. AFTER THIS TROUGH RAPIDLY PROPAGATES EASTWARD, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL RE-BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM PROVIDING A SHORT-TERM WESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE UNTIL A DEEPER, STRONGER TROUGH RE-CURVES THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 THEN DIVERGES IN THE  EXTENDED TAUS DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE RE-CURVE TROUGH. THIS FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z AND 222100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S
(ETHEL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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-  Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)