TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (FUNSO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM EAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN INTENSE SYSTEM WITH A 30-NM ROUND EYE AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. BASED ON A 261546Z CORIOLIS IMAGE, THE SYSTEM IS STILL GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WITH CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS CLEARLY DEPICTED. THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 115 KNOTS BASED ON THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION TREND AND WAS BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 6.0 (115 KNOTS). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A WELL-DEFINED EYE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. TC 08S IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AND RE- CURVES INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER SST WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER TAU 48. NEAR TAU 48, TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST TRACK, ALTHOUGH THIS FORECAST FAVORS ECMWF AND IS POSITIONED FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 30 FEET.
- CIMSS Tropical Cyclone Team + Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
SAWDOS Note: RTCO - Cyclone Funso has once again increased in intensity and is now again a Category 4 cyclone. Funso is a powerful, slow moving and dangerous Tropical Cyclone in the Southern Indian Ocean.
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