210300Z POSITION NEAR 23.1S 52.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ISOLATED, DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 200NM TO THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO STRONG (30-40 KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE IR IMAGERY AND A 202327Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING WHILE TRACKING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 12 FEET.
- JTWC + CIMSS
SAWDOS: Many thanks to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and CIMSS Tropical Centre for making all the information, photos, images and warnings available to the SAWDOS. This goodwill gesture and co-operation between all relevant parties is highly appreciated. This way we can keep people informed about tropical weather systems in the South Indian Ocean.
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