Cyclone Season 2012: Tropical Cyclone Irina (Southern Indian Ocean) 8 March 2012 09h00 SAST

Image: NOAA18 (Nic Cronje, Nelspruit) Click on image for larger view.

080300Z POSITION NEAR 29.4S 40.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 072316Z TRMM MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM PGTW AND KNES AND LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TRMM PASS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY SHALLOW CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER A COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 14S HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE COMPETING INFLUENCES OF STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 25 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 14S CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. THIS WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PASSAGE OVER COOL WATER AND A DECREASE IN UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL INDUCE GRADUAL DISSIPATION BELOW THE WARNING INTENSITY THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 14 FEET.

- JTWC