071500Z POSITION NEAR 29.4S 40.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE LLCC. A 071124Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH WEAK DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING LIMITED TO THE SOUTH QUADRANT AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE LLCC. A 070554Z ASCAT IMAGE HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW A STRONG LLCC WITH NUMEROUS 40 TO 45 KNOT WINDS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION DUE TO THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE RECENT ASCAT DATA AND IS HELD HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW, WHICH APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION. TC 14S IS SLOWLY WEAKENING WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY COOL SST NEAR 25C AND MODERATE, WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 14S IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL (850MB) SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 14 FEET.
- JTWC
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