041500Z POSITION NEAR 27.6S 34.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE LLCC HAS TAKEN A SHARP TURN SOUTHWARD AND HAS MAINTAINED A SYMMETRIC STRUCTURE AS IT HAS SKIRTED THE AFRICAN COAST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS AND THE PERSISTENT STRUCTURE OBSERVED SINCE A 042214Z OSCAT PASS INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 35 KNOTS. AS TC 14S MOVES FURTHER INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS INFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY IMPROVES FROM A REDUCTION IN LAND INFLUENCE. TC 14S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR SLOWING TC 14S. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TRACKING EASTWARD, ANOTHER STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA BRINGING TC 14S BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. INTENSITY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN LATER TAUS AS INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT HAMPERS OUTFLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHIFTING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH A SLOWER LOOP BACK INTO MOZAMBIQUE. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND TAU 96 LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 15 FEET.
- JTWC + CIMSS
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