Recent model runs (GFS up to 00Z on Thurs 19th) have continued to evolve, while the surface conditions have become clearer on the SAWS ship synoptic chart and EUMetsat Airmass animation images.
It now seems clear that this event will comprise at least two phases (separate frontal lows), with the first during the daytime on Fri 20th producing heavy rain showers over the SW-Cape, with a slight possibility of thunder.
The second phase will be during the afternoon of Sat 21st, and is likely to be colder, producing moderately heavy snow on the SW-Cape mountains between 1600-1800m elevation.
The site snow-forecast.com has updated (00Z GFS on Thurs 19th), and gives a good visualisation of the sequence: www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/southafrica
Compiled by: Gordon Richardson - Stormchasing SA
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