The custom GFS model (12Z on Sat 4th) shows yet more phases in this complex and evolving event. The first cold-front is likely to bring lots of snow at low elevations during Mon 6th, particularly along the southern Cape mountains (Langeberg, Outeniqua and Swartberg ranges).
The development of the cutoff-low on Tues 7th is likely to bring slightly warmer conditions (not much!) near the coast, and the rain that falls is likely to melt the snow that had fallen at the lower elevations.
This can be seen on successive custom GFS charts, where the accumulated snow in the southern Cape reaches a value of 14 kg/m2 (roughly 14cm) at 00Z on Tues 7th, and declines rapidly thereafter.
However, heavy snow is likely in the high ground of the Eastern Cape during Tues 7th, since this is further inland and less affected by warm coastal conditions (and has several peaks above 1800m elevation).
Compiled by Gordon Richardson (StormchasingSA)
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