TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm SIXTEEN

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 19 Feb, 2013 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm SIXTEEN (16S) currently located near 20.0 S 41.2 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Madagascar
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Morombe (21.8 S, 43.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
    Toliara (23.4 S, 43.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/


This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.